ARTIFICIAL
INTELLIGENCE AND INTELLECTUALIZATION: NEW PROSPECTS FOR ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
Shevchuk A.V.
Doctor
of Economics, Professor of the Department of Finance
Novovolynsk
Research-Education Institute of Economics and Management of Ternopil National
Economic University
The creation and development of artificial
intelligence as a new market with growing investment and great prospects for
global economic development and the economic development of Ukraine in
particular in the article was viewed. The exponential trend of investment in
the field of artificial intelligence in recent years in the world was defined
and measures required to enhance the development of this market in Ukraine was
described. The application of artificial intelligence, the risks associated
with its implementation and the neglect of this area in countries with a weak
level of development was considered.
Keywords: artificial intelligence,
intellectualization, the market prospects of the economy.
Introduction. The human progress in recent years was related with
the leading role of certain high-technology goods, which concentrated around a
main idea and production capacity. This product was usually associated with IT
and developed in developed countries, where the idea appeared. An example of
such processes was the development of personal computers and related software
market at the end of XX century, the rapid development of the Internet later,
the development of the mobile market smartphones and tablets in recent years.
The next big growth market and technology investments may be deep learning and
artificial intelligence, which increasingly find its realization in personal
computers and mobile devices and their software, the Internet and the
processing and analysis of big data. Identify priority investment areas of
major ideological and financial investment can be a significant advantage in
preparation for release and occupying new niches in the promising market that
can give impetus to the economy. Therefore, special importance is now
intellectualization and willingness of society and companies to create, use and
implementation of artificial intelligence.
Analysis of recent research
and publications. publication
of this trend known of such scientists as R. Kurzweil, V. Healso, J. Hinton and
others. The IT implementation at various institutional levels with a focus on
economic processes was studied by V. Bech, Y. Bech, S. Bilichenko, M.
Yermoshenko, S. Inosov, L. Piddubna, K. Sidun, T. Sobolevska and others.
The aim of this article is to assess prospects for the economy in the process
establishment and use of artificial intelligence (AI).
The principal material
statement. Many researchers
in developed countries gradually come to the conclusion that the next human
progress in the intellectual sphere depends on the possibility of creating
artificial intelligence - as a continuation of special artificial intelligent
agents, robotics and automation. Development and implementation of the AI can
replace not only some human labor, but also to bring science and technology to
a newest level, inaccessible to human achievement and perhaps even its
understanding. The technology of artificial intelligence can bring humanity to
a new stage of development, with completely different ways of life with new types
of interpersonal and interinstitutional relations.
Most modern scientists distinguish and predict the three stages of AI at
the present stage of human development: specialized AI, full or general AI and
super intellect [1]. Today AI have become an essential part of the IT technology
industry, providing the heavy lifting for many of the most challenging problems
in computer and data science [2].
The emergence of specialized AI brings significant changes in public
life, particularly in the area of industrial relations, which is likely to
lead to the next:
- a significant reduction of employees in professions where AI is much
prevail of human;
- loss of motivation in areas where AI significantly prevail of human;
- exclusion from the list of human professions with no changes and
creative approach to production.
The robotic technologies can change the principles of financial and
economic activities, define new terms of competition in the production and on the
labor market.
Development of AI will certainly reflect on the future of human life.
For example, modern car will drive with AI autopilots and people may be will
not be allowed to drive cars on most highways.
Developing and implementing the AI is comparable to the rate of
development of the Internet in the past and this development will have to pass
more quickly.
The development of AI in financial investments now is experiencing
exponential growth and is rapidly bringing us closer to the singularity. This
shows the great interest in the areas of research that will lead to the rapid
development of the industry in the near future. 2015 was the best year in
Artificial Intelligence funding with almost $1.2B raised, according to
VentureScanner with data of investing in startups in the world [3] (see figure
1).
Figure 1. Artificial
Intelligence total funding by year [3].
From the figure 1 we can see
that from 2009 after world financial crysis investing in AI startups rapidly
grows with exponential trend. The subdivision of CBInsight VentureScanner in
the first quarter of 2016 was tracking 957 AI companies with a combined funding
amount of $4.8 Billion. The main amount of companies concentrated in the US –
499, with the United Kingdom at a distant second with 60, Ukraine has
registered only three such companies.
At this moment, research and
development of artificial intelligence is mainly in the area of the creation
of a specialized artificial intelligence based on the interaction of software
and hardware platform. Among areas of companies in the development and
implementation of AI are:
- deep learning, machine learning
with predictive data models and software platforms that analyze behavioral data;
- computer vision and image recognition
with technology that process and analyze images to derive information and
recognize objects from them (face recognition, road marking, car numbers
recognition);
- natural language processing
(voice recognition, text to speech);
- smart robots;
- recommendation engines and
collaborative filtering;
- gesture control;
- context aware computing.
Venture Scanner were tracking
957 Artificial Intelligence companies across 13 categories by count and
fundings. The category Machine Learning in Q1 2016 is leading with 263
companies, and the next Natural Language Processing category with 154 companies
and the Machine Learning category is leading the market with over $2B
in total funding, the second is Natural Language Processing with $662M (see
fig.2).
Figure
2. Investing in Artificial Intelligence by amount of funding and category [3].
It should also be noted that the activities of companies in some areas
is practically impossible without progress in others, as companies that deal
with virtual personal assistant is obviously very dependent on companies
working with voice recognition, definition and context of computer training in
general. Thus the development of all areas is important, but most sections of
investments obviously most interested in manufacturers of other goods.
Investigation of the development of AI market requires a comprehensive
approach - consideration of not only the trends and prospects, but also the
possible risk aspects. Among the threats posed by the new stage of human
development, characterized by the development and implementation of AI will be
the following:
- the first time level of automation goes beyond unskilled occupations and
work monotonous, repetitive, with jumping to the new kind of automation in more
professions with rising amount of unemployment in the world;
- widening gap between large companies and small, developed countries
and developing countries, that will lead to an increase in social inequalities
in the world, due to the presence of high technology in large companies and
developed countries and their inaccessibility for others;
- threats that not yet possible to estimate at the present stage of
development (growth value AI errors in critical areas for people, the risks of
creating superintelectuall AI etc.).
AI is also finds its expression in the new culture. For example, the
creation of neural networks by Google proved themselves in the field of fine
art and taught to create paintings for the styles of famous artists [4]. A new
AI religion (Artificial Intelligence Religion) was created that forms a new
cultural dimension to the perception of technology in society [5]. The spread
of these innovations could mean the emergence of new types of human activity in
AI sphere, including in the economic in the near future.
Global market trends AI somehow gains are determined by the leading countries
of the world. There is the possibility of Ukraine to become active member in
the process creating AI technology, while using the existing intellectual and
IT potential.
Ukraine were rated in the StartupRanking around the world at April 2016 on
33 position with 138 startups [6]. It also has a good chance to enter AI new
markets through large IT companies in cities like Kharkiv, Lviv, Kyiv,
Dnipropetrovsk, Odessa. Along with prospects the are main threats and risks:
- poor ability to create in Ukraine the end of high-tech products -
usually most IT companies specializing in offshore programming for EU and US
companies and are unable to provide the final product on global markets;
- the weakness of the domestic market, where such products are evident
in the near future will not be enough demand;
- weakness of high-tech hardware component of the domestic market, which
cannot afford to carry out the implementation of new software solutions to the
appropriate hardware platform.
Despite the difficulties identified active AI market development in
Ukraine obvious software solutions using this technology can make a decisive
impact on economic and political processes in Ukraine now. For example,
relevant to the development and broad social and administrative use can be a
program that after training of neural networks will able detect propaganda
information on the Internet, neural network, based on information about sales
and service detects shortages in the collection of taxes and others.
The development of AI market in the Ukraine can’t progress without this
stimulating effect tomorrow and there is a risks being on the periphery of
global innovation processes. To avoid this, a comprehensive approach should
ensure development of the AI by combining:
1) spatial aspect of development - concentration of resources available
in limited spatial coordinates, usually it should be cities or regions where
there is a more active employment in the IT sector, favorable structural
characteristics of the economy and the adoption of technological society with
IT clusters (like Lviv IT Cluster http://itcluster.lviv.ua/), business
incubators, technology parks;
2) spatiotemporal aspect of development - concentration of resources
available to a limited temporal coordinates that would provide an innovative
breakthrough favorable conditions diffusion of innovation;
3) specialized aspect of development - with priority support for individual
market segments AI, the development of which have some experience startup IT
companies;
4) functional aspect of development - with the support of the priority
areas of the market AI products which commit the greatest impact on economic
and social processes (in the positive-expected context);
5) stimulating aspect of development - with the support of the priority
areas of the market AI implementation experience which exert a stimulating
effect on the processes technologizing other areas of economic and social
activity.
Conclusions. So, now we can see the formation of a new global
technological market with high investment, which involves the creation and use
of AI. Trends indicate that investments in this sphere annually grow with
exponential trend and are great prospects for domestic IT companies. Measures
to stimulate similar developments and the creation of the final product of this
area of domestic producers can bring in the future Ukrainian economy to a new
stage of development.
References:
1.
Kurzweil, Ray. The singularity is near:
when humans transcend biology, Viking, 2005. 672 p.
2.
Russell,
Stuart J.; Norvig, Peter. Artificial Intelligence: A Modern Approach (2nd ed.),
Upper Saddle River, New Jersey: Prentice Hall. 2003. 946 p.
3. Artificial Intelligence Q1 Update in 15 Visuals. [Electronic
resource]. – Mode of access: http://insights.venturescanner.com/2016/03/22/artificial-intelligence-q1-update-in-15-visuals/
4. Artificial Intelligence Can Now Paint Like Art’s Greatest Masters. [Electronic
resource]. – Mode of access: http://aireligion.org/?p=18
5. About AI Religion. [Electronic resource]. – Mode of access:
http://aireligion.org/?page_id=28
6. Startup Rating. [Electronic resource]. – Mode of access: http://www.startupranking.com/
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